Well, you watch the news and it’s all bad. So you turn that off and head out to meet friends. But there it is again—Everyone going on and about how horrible the economy is, how rotten everything is going to be, how far housing prices are going to fall, how their friends’ brothers’ girlfriend has fallen into negative equity on her house, and on and on and on. There’s no escape! Everybody has a theory, and everybody has a guess for the big question of the day: How much further will housing prices fall?

More. This is what’s known as the easy answer. When £600,000 “luxury homes” are being put up behind petrol stations next to noisy roads and 48 people line up to buy them, then it’s a sure sign that there is still madness in the market. Some are saying 10%, others say another 30% drop is in the works. But I say that until the fools have lost their money, then the regular buyers are still going to be affected by a glut of homes on the market and a rise in default rates as people who got in over their heads are forced to throw in the towel.

Faster. What, you thought they were falling pretty fast already? Ah, but you are forgetting about the seasonal nature of home sales. Most people buy in summer, which means that the bulk of this year’s sales are over. Thus, if you want to sell a house in the winter, you have to put down the price to attract people to buy out of season. Additionally, if you have to sell a house in winter, you are going to put the price down because you are desperate. The combination of the two, plus the nasty post-holidays wallet shutting that happens when the credit card bills arrive, means that the potential for a swift drop is ever-present.

How much more and how much faster? All property is local, even if the credit crunch seems to be global. Keep a sharp eye out if you are looking for bargains, and be prepared if you are looking to sell. ‘Tis the season for sitting tight.

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